Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-10 0.017012 0.019265 0.021708 0.024554 0.027779 0.031322 0.035512
2025-08-17 0.013064 0.016072 0.019613 0.024092 0.029615 0.036208 0.044690
2025-08-24 0.011177 0.014551 0.018754 0.024381 0.031730 0.041021 0.053690
2025-08-31 0.009676 0.013192 0.017779 0.024210 0.033016 0.044685 0.061378
2025-09-07 0.008785 0.012468 0.017467 0.024765 0.035180 0.049556 0.071001
2025-09-14 0.007652 0.011252 0.016316 0.023977 0.035318 0.051555 0.076694
2025-09-21 0.006858 0.010417 0.015588 0.023672 0.036046 0.054362 0.083709
2025-09-28 0.006082 0.009519 0.014662 0.022949 0.036033 0.056005 0.089033
2025-10-05 0.005809 0.009353 0.014809 0.023855 0.038562 0.061684 0.101090
2025-10-12 0.005492 0.009080 0.014754 0.024417 0.040571 0.066677 0.112453
2025-10-19 0.005222 0.008854 0.014744 0.025037 0.042701 0.072009 0.124810
2025-10-26 0.004834 0.008393 0.014305 0.024888 0.043507 0.075179 0.133717
2025-11-02 0.004499 0.008001 0.013958 0.024884 0.044595 0.078974 0.144179
2025-11-09 0.004123 0.007504 0.013390 0.024441 0.044868 0.081369 0.152358
2025-11-16 0.003901 0.007261 0.013242 0.024733 0.046479 0.086265 0.165554
2025-11-23 0.003632 0.006907 0.012863 0.024559 0.047198 0.089565 0.175994
2025-11-30 0.003489 0.006775 0.012878 0.025123 0.049354 0.095717 0.192498
2025-12-07 0.003184 0.006305 0.012218 0.024324 0.048783 0.096574 0.198521
2025-12-14 0.002966 0.005989 0.011826 0.024014 0.049148 0.099269 0.208484
2025-12-21 0.002720 0.005594 0.011248 0.023281 0.048584 0.100047 0.214501
2025-12-28 0.002672 0.005600 0.011468 0.024199 0.051509 0.108173 0.236840
2026-01-04 0.002590 0.005527 0.011522 0.024770 0.053743 0.115031 0.257028
2026-01-11 0.002518 0.005469 0.011600 0.025399 0.056148 0.122439 0.279085